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cd_vision's LiveJournal:
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| Thursday, November 19th, 2009 | | 7:50 am |
| | Tuesday, November 17th, 2009 | | 5:52 am |
Can you help me find better tracking software?
I used to use MSN Money for tracking my portfolio purchases. They made some changes recently to their software that dropped some features I really liked, and I wondered if one of you could recommend something else to use. The #1 thing I loved about MSN was that when a company went ex-dividend, the software would automatically add a transaction that shows the dividend paid on a future date. I hold about 14 dividend paying stocks so that saved me a ton of time entering transactions every month. In addition, dividends were calculated as a total return on investment, instead of a cost averaged purchase. The only thing I ever had to enter was when I actually bought or sold something. As far as I can tell, Google and Yahoo don't have this feature either. If possible, I would really like a web-based experience so that I can look at my numbers from my office. They don't let me install my own software at work. I use quicken at home for some of my other expenses, but the investing part relies on my downloading of data from my broker, and accounts for dividends on a cost averaging basis. | | Sunday, November 8th, 2009 | | 11:50 am |
Kimco and CVS
Kimco better than doubled it's last dividend payment this quarter. Of course, there was a fat drop in the payment a couple quarters back, but it looks like commercial real estate is not nearly as bad off as some people are saying, and it's time to add to the position again. The current yield is floating just under 6%. As far as CVS goes, I wouldn't try to bottom fish them. I think they were in a bubble, and the price drop was actually well deserved. All of the acquisitions that the company has been doing haven't started to pay off yet. Profit margins are extremely thin, and debt levels have been steadily rising. The stock buyback they just announced is a red herring. It will help EPS a bit, but I'd rather see them improving the business from a competitive stance rather than just making the stores look prettier. On the outside, it might look to you like the company is preparing for a turnaround, but Wal-mart hasn't really dug into CVS yet. You know that will happen, and when it does, all of this debt load is going to be a serious burden. | | Saturday, November 7th, 2009 | | 9:28 am |
Spend or not to spend
Hmmmm. Wrestlemania is coming to Phoenix this year. Tickets for my wife and I would cost $1000. Now that is tempting. Only issue is, I haven't watched wresting in ages, so I dunno what any of the storylines are. Oh, and then it's $1000 and I think I'd rather buy an HDTV with that. Decisions, decisions. | | Friday, November 6th, 2009 | | 8:11 am |
Again?
Dang man, what is up with the FTC investigating the companies I work for? First Countrywide, now CVS Caremark. | | Wednesday, November 4th, 2009 | | 8:42 pm |
| | 8:03 am |
| | Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009 | | 6:29 am |
| | Saturday, October 31st, 2009 | | 9:06 am |
| | Friday, October 30th, 2009 | | 1:31 pm |
| | Thursday, October 29th, 2009 | | 8:23 am |
Hmmmm
I added to my position in American Express today. It wasn't really a great price, but I try to keep my largest holdings in high quality companies, and I noticed I had some less quality stuff exceeding it as a percentage. I'm sure that I won't break any records on this purchase, but my risk of loss is also not great. | | Wednesday, October 28th, 2009 | | 6:09 am |
Sliding prices
Mmmm yesterday's market action was really interesting. The DOW closed up a bit, but many smaller companies saw good percentage drops. I came very close to stepping in and making a short term trade on AK Steel when I saw it was down 9% at one point. I backed off at the last minute just because I didn't feel like the amount I was going to purchase would be worth it. I'm starting to get hit with the law of diminishing returns, which means that as your account/business size grows, the percentage of gains as a dollar value starts to shrink. It's an argument some finance people make against buying exclusively large-cap stocks. For example, if you have $1000, and you add $100 to it, well your account value gained 10%. The same $100 added to $10,000 is only 1%, etc. For a multibillion dollar company to grow 10% is much harder than a company with just a few million. So I'm having to make bigger and bigger investments to see a payoff. It is not my goal to take on more and more risk, so I decided against AK Steel for today. We'll see what happens with prices. I may revisit it. | | Tuesday, October 27th, 2009 | | 1:17 pm |
| | 11:57 am |
Quick n dirty analysis of Wendy's
My mother in-law is a Certified Financial Accountant, so I keep in touch with her about various investments she's making. Today she told me she's been buying Wendy's, and I had to pause for a moment to ask her why. I was immediately struck by the bad numbers on their data sheet, and declining net income for the last 3 years. I thought if anyone would recognize that they have problems, it would be her. She forwarded me this article as her reason for buying: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fast-Food-at-a-Slow-tsmp-1668865720.html?x=0&.v=1I picked the reasoning apart, and sent her this reply: "There are a couple of different philosophies I sort through when I try to analyze something like this. Under various conditions, one may be more appropriate than others. If I start with the Buffett approach, then I could most certainly say that Wendy’s has no “durable competitive advantage”. They may very well be priced down because they deserve it. The non-synergy created with Arby’s, the frequent changing of menu options, and most troubling, the lack of customers in their restaurants when we visit pretty much points to all of this. I’ve not looked at their cash flow statements but I bet their debt load is nasty. Actually, I just looked, and yeah, it is. So, that being the case, if a recovery happens, it won’t happen quickly. You could be sitting on a $4-5 range stock for a really long time. If it was fast food Buffett was looking for, he’d want McDonald’s. But McDonald’s doesn’t go on sale too often, so what can you do. That also means it doesn’t take a 20% drop in price overnight either. The Benjamin Graham in me is the guy looking at those real estate assets as motivation, and the dividend as a margin of safety. BUT, real estate is not producing revenue for them, and I could imagine another Filiberto’s would be more than happy to buy those buildings at a nice low price. Mark to market can really hurt them here. In regards to the dividend, you can see that they reduced it by 80%, but they’re still bleeding red ink and adding debt. If you use the same reasoning to choose an investment, why not diversify with other beaten down/badly run restaurants like Carl’s Jr., or Krispy Kreme Donuts? KKD might actually turn it’s very first every profit this year, and they’ve been targeting their debt levels, so who knows? Graham would also want to purchase below the value of the assets if possible, and when examining a possible raise in EPS, he’d want a lower P/E ratio, especially in light of a low growth rate. Lastly, there’s a philosophical approach where we say that everything tends to return to sameness, but that is only in light of constants. Wendy’s is struggling to make themselves a workable business. Sometimes, the markets are efficient, and a $4 stock really is only worth $4. The argument that their competition is doing well right now doesn’t make them more appealing, it makes it look like they’re losing market share. So I’m going to pass on them for now." | | Friday, October 23rd, 2009 | | 10:25 pm |
A Nice time out
Today is my 5th anniversary. I bought my wife some emerald earrings and Hugo Boss perfume, then we went out for dinner at The Players Club in Scottsdale (TPC is where the Phoenix Open is played, it has a great view). Food was pretty darn good. They brought us out a really nice bread pudding with bannana ice cream thing with a, um.. you know, I'm not really sure what it was called. It was like a wide ribbon type of thing but you could eat it and it was sweet. Anyway, they had written happy anniversary in chocolate. They must have started making it right when we arrived, it was really a great touch. I'll get some pictures we took up soon. When I went shopping for her, I couldn't help but notice the price of jewelry with any gold content is really crazy right now. The worst example I've seen so far is this necklace with a 1/10th oz gold eagle coin pendant. The necklace part was 14k gold, so the thing might have had $200 worth of total market value if you smelted it. It was selling for $1600 at Macy's. I asked if sales had been bad from high prices, but the lady working there told me sales are actually up. People are buying this stuff thinking it will hold it's value. Walking around the Metro Center mall I could see that there were a whole bunch of new small jewelry stores that have opened up, trying to cash in on the trend. This is going to end badly. I mean the jewelry businesses will end badly. It looks like my marriage is going pretty good! Love you Jo, looking forward to the next 500 years together! | | Thursday, October 22nd, 2009 | | 8:18 am |
Today's purchases
Increased my bonds holdings in BND, and added a new bond fund, MIN. It's a mortgage-backed securities fund holding mainly Japanese bonds. It's got a very stable price and a healthy yield just over 8%. Also finally added a position in Coca-Cola, and increased holdings in Pfizer and Realty Income Corp. | | 5:21 am |
| | 5:15 am |
| | Tuesday, October 20th, 2009 | | 12:41 pm |
Investment stuffs
I quietly sold what I had in Wells Fargo a few weeks ago. I didn't talk about it because I just wanted to have some cash on hand for my 5th anniversary, which is this Friday. I did also want to take some profit on that company, so I'm not certain if or how quickly I might buy it back. I got my school check this week so I should be making some purchases before the weekend. Bonds for sure, and I'm taking a good look at my portfolio for other smart additions. | | Sunday, October 18th, 2009 | | 12:54 pm |
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